Bemba in, Kony out

Jean-Pierre Bemba, once the most feared warlord in eastern Congo, is now in the custody of Belgian police. Mr Bemba, who had a stint as President Joseph Kabila's deputy, was secretly charged with rape and torture, and will be transferred to The Hague within a week. Mr Bemba, 45, is accused of war crimes committed in the Central African Republic in 2002-2003. If Mr Bemba's arrest is a victory for the International Criminal Court, which is desperate for some respect, then it is a conquest for Mr Kabila, who once accused his former deputy of treason. Yet it is still early days to determine the practical impact of the arrest; Kinshasa could erupt in riots by illiterates who feel that Mr Kabila's administration played a role in the arrest. Mr Bemba’s destiny is likely to have a sobering effect in Uganda, where the country’s best efforts to bring lasting peace to northern Uganda look set to fail. Rebel leader Joseph Kony has so far refused to sign the final peace deal, saying the arrest warrant against him is a deal breaker. The arrest of Mr Bemba may not motivate Mr Kony to commit more crimes, but it may embolden him to stay in the jungles where he feels safest. Mr James Mugume, the permanent secretary at Uganda’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said both parties to the Juba peace process “would have to re-examine whatever position they had taken” since the talks started in July 2006.